Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions: crowd vs house
NFL · Sun Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET · House take 4.2%
Crowd vs House split
House take (median book margin): 4.2%. That is the vig you pay by betting at the house. Split = crowd price minus the house's no-vig fair price.
| Side | CROWD | HOUSE fair | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 39.2% Polymarket + Kalshi mid | 40.1% no-vig median | -0.8 pts |
| Detroit Lions | 60.7% Polymarket + Kalshi mid | 59.9% no-vig median | +0.8 pts |
Who's cheaper: Green Bay Packers to win
House no-vig fair: 40.1%. Cheapest after vig & fees: CROWDPolymarket by 0.1¢ per $1 payout vs HOUSEFanatics.
| Venue | Quoted | All-in cost / $1 |
|---|---|---|
| CROWDPolymarket open | 40.0¢ + 0.72¢ fee | 40.7¢ +146 |
| HOUSEFanatics | +145 (2.45) | 40.8¢ +145 |
| CROWDKalshi open | 40¢ + 1.68¢ fee | 41.7¢ +140 |
Who's cheaper: Detroit Lions to win
House no-vig fair: 59.9%. Cheapest after vig & fees: HOUSECaesars by 0.9¢ per $1 payout vs CROWDKalshi.
| Venue | Quoted | All-in cost / $1 |
|---|---|---|
| HOUSECaesars | -161 (1.62) | 61.7¢ -161 |
| CROWDKalshi open | 61¢ + 1.67¢ fee | 62.7¢ -168 |
| CROWDPolymarket open | 62.0¢ + 0.71¢ fee | 62.7¢ -168 |
House moneylines
| Book | Packers | Lions | House take |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOUSEBetMGM | +140 | -164 | 3.8% |
| HOUSEBetRivers | +135 | -164 | 4.7% |
| HOUSECaesars | +138 | -161 | 3.7% |
| HOUSEDraftKings | +140 | -167 | 4.2% |
| HOUSEFanDuel | +140 | -167 | 4.2% |
| HOUSEFanatics | +145 | -175 | 4.5% |
All-in cost = what you pay for a contract/bet that returns $1 if it wins, after Kalshi or Polymarket taker fees (the vig is already inside sportsbook prices). Lower is better. How we calculate this.
Last updated: Oct 20, 2026 1:20 AM ET. Prices move constantly; always check the live price at the venue.