New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears: crowd vs house
NFL · Thu Oct 22, 8:15 PM ET · House take 4.2%
Crowd vs House split
House take (median book margin): 4.2%. That is the vig you pay by betting at the house. Split = crowd price minus the house's no-vig fair price.
| Side | CROWD | HOUSE fair | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 40.0% Polymarket + Kalshi mid | 41.1% no-vig median | -1.1 pts |
| Chicago Bears | 60.0% Polymarket + Kalshi mid | 58.9% no-vig median | +1.1 pts |
Who's cheaper: New England Patriots to win
House no-vig fair: 41.1%. Cheapest after vig & fees: CROWDPolymarket by 1.7¢ per $1 payout vs HOUSECaesars.
| Venue | Quoted | All-in cost / $1 |
|---|---|---|
| CROWDPolymarket open | 40.0¢ + 0.72¢ fee | 40.7¢ +146 |
| HOUSECaesars | +136 (2.36) | 42.4¢ +136 |
| CROWDKalshi open | 41¢ + 1.69¢ fee | 42.7¢ +134 |
Who's cheaper: Chicago Bears to win
House no-vig fair: 58.9%. Cheapest after vig & fees: HOUSEDraftKings by 1.1¢ per $1 payout vs CROWDKalshi.
| Venue | Quoted | All-in cost / $1 |
|---|---|---|
| HOUSEDraftKings | -154 (1.65) | 60.6¢ -154 |
| CROWDKalshi open | 60¢ + 1.68¢ fee | 61.7¢ -161 |
| CROWDPolymarket open | 61.0¢ + 0.71¢ fee | 61.7¢ -161 |
House moneylines
| Book | Patriots | Bears | House take |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOUSEBetMGM | +135 | -161 | 4.3% |
| HOUSEBetRivers | +130 | -159 | 4.8% |
| HOUSECaesars | +136 | -161 | 4.1% |
| HOUSEDraftKings | +130 | -154 | 4.1% |
| HOUSEFanDuel | +132 | -154 | 3.7% |
| HOUSEFanatics | +135 | -164 | 4.7% |
All-in cost = what you pay for a contract/bet that returns $1 if it wins, after Kalshi or Polymarket taker fees (the vig is already inside sportsbook prices). Lower is better. How we calculate this.
Last updated: Oct 20, 2026 1:20 AM ET. Prices move constantly; always check the live price at the venue.